Are scientists breeding wheat to cope with the wrong conditions in the future? Elisa Loza Reyes, one of our Agents, tells us more.

Scientists at Rothamsted Research are using mathematical and computational tools to investigate the effects that the future climate may have on the development and yield of the most important crop in Europe: wheat. In a recent study, daily weather data was generated for various European locations, including Denmark, the UK, Hungary and Italy, and over two periods: 1960-1990 (the baseline) and 2046-2065 (the future). The predictions showed lower precipitation and increased temperatures across all sites. The data was used to study the impact that such a climate could have on wheat.

Scientists found that wheat development will accelerate in the future, bringing forward flowering and maturity - the time when wheat is ready to be harvested - by around two weeks on average. In spite of the drier summers in the future, the early maturity of wheat will mean that it should avoid severe water stress. This will result in lower yield losses due to drought.

In terms of temperature, Rothamsted scientists have estimated that temperatures of more than 30 ̊C at flowering time will be more likely in the future for most of Europe. High temperatures a few days after flowering will also be more likely. Temperatures during flowering and a few days afterwards are crucial to wheat development, because high temperatures around this time can substantially reduce the grain yield of heat-sensitive cultivars.

These findings, highlight the need to develop wheat varieties that are resistant to high temperature around flowering, rather than the conventional thinking which is to breed for drought-tolerance.

Software development has been a key part of this work. The scientists have developed a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, which produces weather data for future scenarios and hypothetical locations. One of the main strengths of LARS-WG is that it is based on several climate models that have been produced by a variety of groups across the world.

Rothamsted scientists have also developed Sirius, a crop simulation model that mimics the development and growth of wheat plants. Both LARS-WG and Sirius are publically available for non-commercial purposes and their use has already benefited several sectors of society. Both models are currently used in many countries for research and educational purposes. Sirius is also used by farmers to optimise the application of water and nitrogen to crops.